Two years have passed since the war in Ukraine began as Russian troops and vehicles crossed the border in dramatic fashion. Since then, the war has captured attention from the West as the United States and Europe have bankrolled Ukraine’s defense. The massive expenditures have caused many, including myself, to question the Ukrainian goals for the war. I previously wrote that the war would at best end in a cold peace. Today, I am even more skeptical of the possibility of a Ukrainian victory and restoration of pre-2014 borders for eastern Ukraine and Crimea. Russian forces have made progress in recent months, most notably taking the city of Avdiivka. Russia is preparing for a larger offensive, while Ukrainian forces are struggling to construct effective fortifications. In the context of Ukraine’s failed counteroffensive last year, the situation is increasingly dire. Suing for peace has failed, and as disheartening as it may be, Ukraine may soon lose its will to continue the war.
As a preface to any further arguments, I must say that the Ukrainian people have been exceptionally brave in fighting for their homeland. In no way am I insinuating that the Ukrainians are cowardly or looking for an easy way out. The fundamental thesis of my argument is that the reality of the war is less enticing for the Ukrainian people to continue; like any other nation, sending men to their deaths for little to no gain is unpopular.
Unfortunate Sons
The most dire need that Ukraine faces is man power. Last year, President Zelenskyy claimed that the military asked for 450,000-500,000 troops to be mobilized. General (Now Ambassador to the UK) Valeriy Zaluzhny, probably the most popular public figure in Ukraine, denied that they had asked for a specific number of troops. Nevertheless, a conscription bill is currently being debated in the Verkhovna Rada that would mobilize an additional 500,000 troops. However, it is not clear when or if this bill will pass. Political pressure on President Zelenskyy may make him hesitant to sign off on the bill, especially since he previously failed to give the go ahead on a bill that would lower the conscription age from 27 to 25.
Ukraine’s slow approach to mobilization is going to be costly. As laid out by Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, there will be significant lead times to the effects of mobilization even once the bill is passed into law. He goes on to mention that infantry units are in the most dire need of manpower and that the delay on the U.S. aid package by Congress is also injuring Ukrainian war aims.
The mobilization problem brings up several questions to be answered about Ukraine’s commitment to the war. First, why has the nation not mobilized its youngest men? One cannot ignore that the average age on the frontline is 43. Infantry combat is a young man’s game, and the middle aged combatants are likely less effective than their younger counterparts would be. However, Ukraine has kept its minimum conscription age at 27 and only proposes to lower it to 25. What this reflects is the political unpopularity of sending young men off to war. The reality of war is that a lot of young life is thrown away. No one can blame Ukraine for wanting to avoid something so terrible. But to take back all of the land occupied by Russia, more and younger troops would have to be mobilized. If Ukraine is unwilling to do that, then their ability to win the war may be jeopardized.
The second question is why has this bill taken so long? Many of the problems that are being worked out in the bill, including a maximum conscription term of 36 months and guaranteed 6 month rotations, are straightforward. Inna Sovsun, an MP, said, “People are extremely tired. [The war] has taken its toll on everybody, and I started thinking, how many years can people live like this?” Mobilization guarantees a continuation and an expansion of the war’s impact on Ukrainian society. The hesitancy to pass the bill is likely rooted in the population’s skepticism about sending more men to combat. Unfortunately, hesitancy cannot be afforded by people with no time.
Shifting Opinions
A recent Gallup poll shed some light on how opinions on the war have shifted in Ukraine. These most recent polls showed that in 2023, 60% of Ukrainians want to keep fighting until the war is won, compared to 70% in 2022. Ukranians in favor of negotiating a peace crept up by 5%.
More telling is the visualization of the distribution of the opinion across Ukraine’s geography. See below.
In the east and southern regions of the country, where the fighting is actually occurring, the appetite to keep fighting was significantly lower than in the north and western regions. The poll was dated to late July-early August. Since then, Ukraine has suffered the loss of Avdiivka and the failure of the counter offensive has fully set in. The decrease from 2022 to 2023 in support for the war is unsurprising, being that Ukrainian progress entirely halted in 2023. Although unsurprising, it is worth noting the decrease, because it would not take much time for the popularity of the war to become extremely precarious. I would hypothesize that since the time of this poll the war has become less popular.
60% of the country favoring the continuation of the war is still a significant majority and should not be overlooked. However, with the coming mobilization bill, assuming it does pass, that popularity could take a significant hit. Mobilizing half a million people will have a large impact not only on the number of people affected by the fighting but also on the economy. Those who are mobilized will no longer be contributing to what is left of the Ukrainian economy, which needs as much help as it can get. The bottom line is that life may get much worse for the Ukrainian people.
Looking Forward
Fighting the Russian invasion has been immensely costly for the Ukrainian people. There are no good numbers estimating how many Ukrainians have died, but as of February, Zelenskyy said that 31,000 have been killed and 105,000-110,000 have been injured. 2024 is shaping up to be the country’s worst year yet as Russia has begun to make some, albeit modest, advances. How much longer can Ukraine maintain its will to keep fighting this war? With a rocky future ahead, Ukraine may no longer have the manpower or support from its own people to continue in days to come.